CE 582 – Statistical Hydrology

Spring 2008

 

Downloads

Homework 1:  Rio Grande at El Paso and Las Cruces Precipitation

Homework 2:  Rio Grande Project problems

Homework 3:  Caballo

Homework 4:  Log Pearson III

Homework 5: ARIMA modeling and Del Norte flow data

 

ASCE submission guidelines, etc.:  http://pubs.asce.org/authors/journal/

 

Final Exam

 

 

Time:  MWF 11:30 AM – 12:20 PM

Location:  106 Hernandez Hall

 

Instructor:      J. Phillip King, P.E., Ph.D.

                        Office:  Room 235, Civil Hernandez Hall

                        Telephone:  646-5377

                        E-mail:  jpking@nmsu.edu

                        http://cagesun.nmsu.edu/~jpking

 

Office Hours:  Dr. King:  MW 2:30-4:30 PM or by appointment. 

 

Text:  Applied Statistics and the SAS Programming Language, 5th Edition, by Ron P. Cody and Jeffrey L. Smith.

 

Optional:  Fundamentals of Probability and Statistics for Engineers, by T. T. Soong.

 

Course Objectives:  The course aims to acquaint graduate students with the theory, application, and implications of statistical hydrology and closely related areas.  General areas of study will be:

 

  1. Probability concepts and application to hydrology;
  2. Maxima and minima, flood and drought;
  3. Extreme value distributions;
  4. Regression in hydrology;
  5. Estimation and statistical parameterization of hydrologic variables;
  6. Hydrologic calibration;
  7. Introduction to time series analysis and ARIMA modeling;
  8. The SAS programming language for statistical analysis
  9. Industry standards for hydrologic analysis.

 

 

A Few Asides:  Attendance at irregularly scheduled guest lectures will occasionally be required.  Attendance is required – your first two absences require no explanation.  Additional absences will require either a memo of explanation from you to me, or you will lose 5% of the total semester grade from the “Participation/Comprehension” category below for each absence.  Bring your calculator every time, and plan on using it.  Random students will present solutions to homework problems in class, so be prepared.

 

Homework assignments will not be collected by the instructor.  Instead, you will be required to present your solution to a randomly selected homework problem to the class on the day it is due.  Your homework grade will be based on your performance on those presented problems.

 

This is a graduate class, and you are expected to not only solve problems, but to also to go beyond what is asked.  Look for theoretical explanations of what we see in the applied sections of class, and look for real-world examples of the theoretical concepts we develop.

 

You will identify and carry out a statistical study of a hydrologic data set as a term project.  You will be required to present a midterm project proposal (about 5 pages) and a final report and presentation to the class.  We will discuss this more in class.

 

 

Grading:

Homework, participation, comprehension:   30 %

Midterm:                                                                    20 %

Final:                                                                           30 %

Term Project:                                                 20 %

 

TOTAL:                                                                      100%

 

90-100% -       A

80-89% -         B

70-79% -         C

< 70% -           F

 

Tentative Schedule of Topics

 

Date

Topic

Ref

Wed 1/16

Course introduction and objectives

 

Fri 1/18

Notation, basic principles

Soong

Mon 1/21

Martin Luther King Holiday

 

Wed 1/23

Random variables and probablity distributions

Soong

Fri 1/25

Expectations and moments

Soong

Mon 1/28

Discrete distributions

Soong

Wed 1/30

Continuous distributions

Soong

Fri 2/1

Parameter estimation

Soong

Mon 2/4

Model verification

Soong

Wed 2/6

Basic statistics with SAS

Handouts

Fri 2/8

Hydrologic applications - annual maxima

Handouts

Mon 2/11

Design criteria

Handouts

Wed 2/13

Linear models and regression

Soong

Fri 2/15

Nonlinear models and regression

Handouts

Mon 2/18

Term Projects

Assignment

Wed 2/20

Precipitation – IDFs

Handouts

Fri 2/22

Precipitation – IDFs

Handouts

Mon 2/25

Streamflow - LP3, other distributions

Handouts

Wed 2/27

Streamflow applications

Handouts

Fri 2/29

Extreme value distributions

Handouts

Mon 3/3

Extreme value distributions - example

Handouts

Wed 3/5

Calibration of hydraulic models

Handouts

Fri 3/7

Calibration of hydraulic models

Handouts

Mon 3/10

Error analysis and uncertainty

Handouts

Wed 3/12

Error analysis and uncertainty

Handouts

Fri 3/14

Error analysis and uncertainty

Handouts

Mon 3/17

Term project update

 

Wed 3/19

Catch-up

 

Fri 3/21

Spring Break - No class

 

Mon 3/24

Spring Break - No class

 

Wed 3/26

Spring Break - No class

 

Fri 3/28

Spring Break - No class

 

Mon 3/31

ARIMA Models – basics

Handouts

Wed 4/2

ARIMA Models – basics

Handouts

Fri 4/4

ARIMA model development – SAS

Handouts

Mon 4/7

ARIMA model development – SAS

Handouts

Wed 4/9

Water supply forecasting

Handouts

Fri 4/11

Basin-scale runoff forecasting

Handouts

Mon 4/14

Basin-scale runoff forecasting

Handouts

Wed 4/16

Drought analysis

Handouts

Fri 4/18

Drought analysis

Handouts

Mon 4/21

Climate change issues

Handouts

Wed 4/23

Climate change issues

Handouts

Fri 4/25

Catch-up

 

Mon 4/28

Project presentations

 

Wed 4/30

Project presentations

 

Fri 5/2

Course Review and Evaluation

 

Wed 5/7

FINAL EXAMINATION 3:30-5:30